Risk Tier
High
ORF to LGA Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
18.3%
Historical Cancellation
14.4%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
10/12
Operations Volume
508
Weighted Risk Score
0.673
Volatility Index
5.5%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 48 | 3 | 6.2% | n/a | 2 |
| February | 44 | 4 | 9.1% | n/a | 1 |
| March | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 23 | 2 | 8.7% | n/a | 1 |
| June | 96 | 15 | 15.6% | n/a | 3 |
| July | 111 | 27 | 24.3% | n/a | 2 |
| August | 27 | 3 | 11.1% | n/a | 1 |
| October | 50 | 5 | 10.0% | n/a | 2 |
| November | 76 | 11 | 14.5% | n/a | 2 |
| December | 27 | 2 | 7.4% | n/a | 2 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 10 distinct months, with 508 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 14.4%. The volatility profile (5.5%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 18.3%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- ORF to EWR (15.9% cancel)
- PIT to LGA (15.7% cancel)
- GSP to LGA (15.1% cancel)
- EWR to STL (18.8% cancel)