Risk Tier
High
GSP to LGA Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
19.1%
Historical Cancellation
15.1%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
9/12
Operations Volume
556
Weighted Risk Score
0.686
Volatility Index
14.1%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 45 | 4 | 8.9% | n/a | 2 |
| February | 52 | 4 | 7.7% | n/a | 1 |
| March | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 62 | 6 | 9.7% | n/a | 2 |
| June | 101 | 20 | 19.8% | n/a | 2 |
| July | 134 | 35 | 26.1% | n/a | 2 |
| August | 52 | 4 | 7.7% | n/a | 2 |
| October | 54 | 4 | 7.4% | n/a | 1 |
| November | 54 | 6 | 11.1% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 9 distinct months, with 556 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 15.1%. The volatility profile (14.1%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 19.1%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- PIT to LGA (15.7% cancel)
- ORF to LGA (14.4% cancel)
- EWR to STL (18.8% cancel)
- DCA to EWR (15.1% cancel)