Risk Tier
High
EWR to STL Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
22.8%
Historical Cancellation
18.8%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
12/12
Operations Volume
250
Weighted Risk Score
0.856
Volatility Index
13.6%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | n/a | 1 |
| February | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | n/a | 1 |
| March | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | n/a | 1 |
| April | 29 | 6 | 20.7% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 15 | 6 | 40.0% | n/a | 1 |
| June | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | n/a | 1 |
| July | 61 | 14 | 23.0% | n/a | 1 |
| August | 18 | 1 | 5.6% | n/a | 1 |
| September | 24 | 2 | 8.3% | n/a | 1 |
| October | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | n/a | 1 |
| November | 55 | 7 | 12.7% | n/a | 1 |
| December | 17 | 3 | 17.6% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 12 distinct months, with 250 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 18.8%. The volatility profile (13.6%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 22.8%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- EWR to DCA (15.1% cancel)
- EWR to PIT (15.0% cancel)
- EWR to SYR (16.7% cancel)
- EWR to ORF (16.7% cancel)