Risk Tier
High
EWR to SYR Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
20.7%
Historical Cancellation
16.7%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
11/12
Operations Volume
281
Weighted Risk Score
0.756
Volatility Index
10.2%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 20 | 1 | 5.0% | n/a | 1 |
| February | 54 | 4 | 7.4% | n/a | 2 |
| March | 31 | 3 | 9.7% | n/a | 1 |
| April | 28 | 3 | 10.7% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 33 | 11 | 33.3% | n/a | 1 |
| June | 25 | 6 | 24.0% | n/a | 1 |
| July | 31 | 10 | 32.3% | n/a | 2 |
| August | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | n/a | 2 |
| September | 19 | 1 | 5.3% | n/a | 1 |
| October | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | n/a | 1 |
| December | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 11 distinct months, with 281 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 16.7%. The volatility profile (10.2%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 20.7%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- EWR to STL (18.8% cancel)
- EWR to DCA (15.1% cancel)
- EWR to PIT (15.0% cancel)
- EWR to ORF (16.7% cancel)