Risk Tier
High
EWR to ORF Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
20.7%
Historical Cancellation
16.7%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
10/12
Operations Volume
300
Weighted Risk Score
0.733
Volatility Index
13.9%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February | 50 | 4 | 8.0% | n/a | 2 |
| March | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | n/a | 1 |
| April | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 44 | 7 | 15.9% | n/a | 3 |
| June | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | n/a | 1 |
| July | 87 | 18 | 20.7% | n/a | 3 |
| August | 14 | 1 | 7.1% | n/a | 1 |
| October | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | n/a | 1 |
| November | 54 | 11 | 20.4% | n/a | 2 |
| December | 30 | 4 | 13.3% | n/a | 2 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 10 distinct months, with 300 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 16.7%. The volatility profile (13.9%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 20.7%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- EWR to STL (18.8% cancel)
- EWR to DCA (15.1% cancel)
- EWR to PIT (15.0% cancel)
- EWR to SYR (16.7% cancel)