Risk Tier
High
PIT to LGA Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
19.7%
Historical Cancellation
15.7%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
9/12
Operations Volume
523
Weighted Risk Score
0.708
Volatility Index
7.1%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February | 22 | 3 | 13.6% | n/a | 1 |
| March | 52 | 4 | 7.7% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 34 | 4 | 11.8% | n/a | 1 |
| June | 104 | 21 | 20.2% | n/a | 3 |
| July | 110 | 30 | 27.3% | n/a | 2 |
| August | 18 | 1 | 5.6% | n/a | 1 |
| September | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | n/a | 1 |
| October | 124 | 12 | 9.7% | n/a | 2 |
| November | 49 | 5 | 10.2% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 9 distinct months, with 523 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 15.7%. The volatility profile (7.1%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 19.7%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- PIT to EWR (13.9% cancel)
- GSP to LGA (15.1% cancel)
- ORF to LGA (14.4% cancel)
- EWR to STL (18.8% cancel)