Risk Tier
High
ORF to EWR Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
19.9%
Historical Cancellation
15.9%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
11/12
Operations Volume
364
Weighted Risk Score
0.746
Volatility Index
8.6%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | n/a | 1 |
| February | 56 | 5 | 8.9% | n/a | 2 |
| March | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | n/a | 1 |
| April | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 27 | 5 | 18.5% | n/a | 2 |
| June | 30 | 3 | 10.0% | n/a | 1 |
| July | 117 | 22 | 18.8% | n/a | 3 |
| August | 14 | 1 | 7.1% | n/a | 1 |
| October | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | n/a | 2 |
| November | 54 | 12 | 22.2% | n/a | 2 |
| December | 34 | 3 | 8.8% | n/a | 2 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 11 distinct months, with 364 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 15.9%. The volatility profile (8.6%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 19.9%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- DCA to EWR (15.1% cancel)
- IND to EWR (15.8% cancel)
- CVG to EWR (15.0% cancel)
- AVL to EWR (22.0% cancel)