Risk Tier
High
CVG to EWR Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
19.0%
Historical Cancellation
15.0%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
12/12
Operations Volume
441
Weighted Risk Score
0.745
Volatility Index
9.6%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 60 | 9 | 15.0% | n/a | 3 |
| February | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | n/a | 1 |
| March | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | n/a | 2 |
| April | 26 | 3 | 11.5% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 48 | 10 | 20.8% | n/a | 3 |
| June | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | n/a | 2 |
| July | 76 | 11 | 14.5% | n/a | 2 |
| August | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | n/a | 2 |
| September | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | n/a | 1 |
| October | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | n/a | 1 |
| November | 146 | 19 | 13.0% | n/a | 2 |
| December | 18 | 1 | 5.6% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 12 distinct months, with 441 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 15.0%. The volatility profile (9.6%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 19.0%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- DCA to EWR (15.1% cancel)
- IND to EWR (15.8% cancel)
- ORF to EWR (15.9% cancel)
- AVL to EWR (22.0% cancel)