Risk Tier
High
IND to EWR Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
19.8%
Historical Cancellation
15.8%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
11/12
Operations Volume
436
Weighted Risk Score
0.756
Volatility Index
8.1%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | n/a | 2 |
| February | 28 | 2 | 7.1% | n/a | 1 |
| March | 55 | 4 | 7.3% | n/a | 1 |
| April | 56 | 7 | 12.5% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 49 | 14 | 28.6% | n/a | 2 |
| June | 43 | 9 | 20.9% | n/a | 1 |
| July | 68 | 18 | 26.5% | n/a | 2 |
| August | 18 | 1 | 5.6% | n/a | 1 |
| September | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | n/a | 1 |
| October | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | n/a | 1 |
| November | 82 | 7 | 8.5% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 11 distinct months, with 436 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 15.8%. The volatility profile (8.1%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 19.8%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- DCA to EWR (15.1% cancel)
- ORF to EWR (15.9% cancel)
- CVG to EWR (15.0% cancel)
- AVL to EWR (22.0% cancel)