Risk Tier
High
AVL to EWR Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
26.0%
Historical Cancellation
22.0%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
6/12
Operations Volume
123
Weighted Risk Score
0.698
Volatility Index
8.7%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | n/a | 1 |
| June | 25 | 7 | 28.0% | n/a | 1 |
| July | 31 | 6 | 19.4% | n/a | 1 |
| August | 18 | 2 | 11.1% | n/a | 1 |
| November | 29 | 6 | 20.7% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 6 distinct months, with 123 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 22.0%. The volatility profile (8.7%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 26.0%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- DCA to EWR (15.1% cancel)
- IND to EWR (15.8% cancel)
- ORF to EWR (15.9% cancel)
- CVG to EWR (15.0% cancel)