Risk Tier
High
RIC to EWR Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
18.5%
Historical Cancellation
14.5%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
11/12
Operations Volume
415
Weighted Risk Score
0.690
Volatility Index
6.3%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | n/a | 1 |
| February | 70 | 7 | 10.0% | n/a | 2 |
| March | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | n/a | 1 |
| April | 29 | 4 | 13.8% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 61 | 9 | 14.8% | n/a | 2 |
| June | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | n/a | 2 |
| July | 61 | 13 | 21.3% | n/a | 2 |
| August | 18 | 2 | 11.1% | n/a | 1 |
| October | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | n/a | 1 |
| November | 82 | 9 | 11.0% | n/a | 2 |
| December | 29 | 2 | 6.9% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 11 distinct months, with 415 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 14.5%. The volatility profile (6.3%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 18.5%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- DCA to EWR (15.1% cancel)
- IND to EWR (15.8% cancel)
- ORF to EWR (15.9% cancel)
- CVG to EWR (15.0% cancel)