Risk Tier
High
DTW to EWR Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
18.1%
Historical Cancellation
14.5%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
9/12
Operations Volume
690
Weighted Risk Score
0.670
Volatility Index
4.7%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | n/a | 1 |
| April | 43 | 3 | 7.0% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 72 | 12 | 16.7% | n/a | 5 |
| June | 63 | 9 | 14.3% | n/a | 2 |
| July | 198 | 42 | 21.2% | n/a | 3 |
| August | 31 | 3 | 9.7% | n/a | 2 |
| October | 36 | 3 | 8.3% | n/a | 2 |
| November | 221 | 25 | 11.3% | n/a | 3 |
| December | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 9 distinct months, with 690 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 14.5%. The volatility profile (4.7%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 18.1%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- DCA to EWR (15.1% cancel)
- IND to EWR (15.8% cancel)
- ORF to EWR (15.9% cancel)
- CVG to EWR (15.0% cancel)