Risk Tier
High
EWR to CVG Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
18.2%
Historical Cancellation
14.6%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
10/12
Operations Volume
439
Weighted Risk Score
0.672
Volatility Index
4.5%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 59 | 9 | 15.3% | n/a | 3 |
| February | 14 | 1 | 7.1% | n/a | 1 |
| March | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | n/a | 1 |
| April | 30 | 4 | 13.3% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 57 | 14 | 24.6% | n/a | 2 |
| June | 47 | 7 | 14.9% | n/a | 3 |
| July | 49 | 7 | 14.3% | n/a | 2 |
| August | 18 | 2 | 11.1% | n/a | 2 |
| October | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | n/a | 1 |
| November | 146 | 17 | 11.6% | n/a | 2 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 10 distinct months, with 439 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 14.6%. The volatility profile (4.5%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 18.2%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- EWR to STL (18.8% cancel)
- EWR to DCA (15.1% cancel)
- EWR to PIT (15.0% cancel)
- EWR to SYR (16.7% cancel)