Risk Tier
High
EWR to BOS Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
17.7%
Historical Cancellation
13.7%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
11/12
Operations Volume
853
Weighted Risk Score
0.700
Volatility Index
12.1%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 26 | 2 | 7.7% | n/a | 1 |
| February | 104 | 9 | 8.7% | n/a | 2 |
| March | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | n/a | 1 |
| April | 30 | 2 | 6.7% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 99 | 19 | 19.2% | n/a | 2 |
| June | 31 | 4 | 12.9% | n/a | 1 |
| July | 187 | 32 | 17.1% | n/a | 2 |
| September | 40 | 7 | 17.5% | n/a | 2 |
| October | 68 | 7 | 10.3% | n/a | 2 |
| November | 210 | 29 | 13.8% | n/a | 2 |
| December | 56 | 5 | 8.9% | n/a | 2 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 11 distinct months, with 853 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 13.7%. The volatility profile (12.1%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 17.7%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- EWR to STL (18.8% cancel)
- EWR to DCA (15.1% cancel)
- EWR to PIT (15.0% cancel)
- EWR to SYR (16.7% cancel)