Risk Tier
High
DCA to RDU Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
18.2%
Historical Cancellation
14.2%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
10/12
Operations Volume
882
Weighted Risk Score
0.696
Volatility Index
5.7%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 212 | 23 | 10.8% | n/a | 4 |
| February | 175 | 22 | 12.6% | n/a | 4 |
| March | 26 | 2 | 7.7% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 49 | 5 | 10.2% | n/a | 2 |
| June | 112 | 21 | 18.8% | n/a | 3 |
| July | 146 | 37 | 25.3% | n/a | 4 |
| August | 25 | 3 | 12.0% | n/a | 2 |
| October | 27 | 2 | 7.4% | n/a | 1 |
| November | 98 | 9 | 9.2% | n/a | 2 |
| December | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 10 distinct months, with 882 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 14.2%. The volatility profile (5.7%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 18.2%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- DCA to EWR (15.1% cancel)
- DCA to CLE (16.2% cancel)
- DCA to CAE (16.6% cancel)
- DCA to BNA (15.6% cancel)