Risk Tier
High
DCA to CLE Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
19.9%
Historical Cancellation
16.2%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
11/12
Operations Volume
705
Weighted Risk Score
0.807
Volatility Index
4.9%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 102 | 14 | 13.7% | n/a | 2 |
| February | 113 | 22 | 19.5% | n/a | 1 |
| March | 61 | 8 | 13.1% | n/a | 1 |
| April | 26 | 3 | 11.5% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 53 | 6 | 11.3% | n/a | 1 |
| June | 96 | 22 | 22.9% | n/a | 1 |
| July | 111 | 24 | 21.6% | n/a | 1 |
| August | 26 | 3 | 11.5% | n/a | 1 |
| September | 28 | 3 | 10.7% | n/a | 2 |
| November | 51 | 6 | 11.8% | n/a | 1 |
| December | 38 | 3 | 7.9% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 11 distinct months, with 705 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 16.2%. The volatility profile (4.9%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 19.9%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- DCA to EWR (15.1% cancel)
- DCA to CAE (16.6% cancel)
- DCA to BNA (15.6% cancel)
- DCA to SYR (17.1% cancel)