Risk Tier
High
DCA to CAE Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
20.1%
Historical Cancellation
16.6%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
9/12
Operations Volume
465
Weighted Risk Score
0.740
Volatility Index
4.5%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 87 | 16 | 18.4% | n/a | 1 |
| February | 80 | 12 | 15.0% | n/a | 1 |
| March | 28 | 4 | 14.3% | n/a | 1 |
| April | 26 | 2 | 7.7% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 26 | 3 | 11.5% | n/a | 1 |
| June | 78 | 16 | 20.5% | n/a | 2 |
| July | 88 | 18 | 20.5% | n/a | 2 |
| August | 27 | 3 | 11.1% | n/a | 1 |
| November | 25 | 3 | 12.0% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 9 distinct months, with 465 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 16.6%. The volatility profile (4.5%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 20.1%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- DCA to EWR (15.1% cancel)
- DCA to CLE (16.2% cancel)
- DCA to BNA (15.6% cancel)
- DCA to SYR (17.1% cancel)