Risk Tier
High
DCA to MHT Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
18.5%
Historical Cancellation
14.5%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
10/12
Operations Volume
504
Weighted Risk Score
0.677
Volatility Index
8.4%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 110 | 14 | 12.7% | n/a | 1 |
| February | 78 | 20 | 25.6% | n/a | 1 |
| March | 55 | 5 | 9.1% | n/a | 1 |
| April | 30 | 2 | 6.7% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 23 | 4 | 17.4% | n/a | 1 |
| June | 26 | 8 | 30.8% | n/a | 1 |
| July | 84 | 13 | 15.5% | n/a | 1 |
| August | 60 | 4 | 6.7% | n/a | 1 |
| September | 26 | 2 | 7.7% | n/a | 1 |
| December | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 10 distinct months, with 504 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 14.5%. The volatility profile (8.4%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 18.5%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- DCA to EWR (15.1% cancel)
- DCA to CLE (16.2% cancel)
- DCA to CAE (16.6% cancel)
- DCA to BNA (15.6% cancel)