Risk Tier
High
DCA to GRR Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
22.0%
Historical Cancellation
18.0%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
8/12
Operations Volume
250
Weighted Risk Score
0.714
Volatility Index
7.5%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 36 | 4 | 11.1% | n/a | 1 |
| February | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | n/a | 1 |
| March | 26 | 3 | 11.5% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 27 | 4 | 14.8% | n/a | 1 |
| June | 25 | 8 | 32.0% | n/a | 1 |
| July | 62 | 9 | 14.5% | n/a | 1 |
| September | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | n/a | 1 |
| November | 28 | 6 | 21.4% | n/a | 2 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 8 distinct months, with 250 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 18.0%. The volatility profile (7.5%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 22.0%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- DCA to EWR (15.1% cancel)
- DCA to CLE (16.2% cancel)
- DCA to CAE (16.6% cancel)
- DCA to BNA (15.6% cancel)