Risk Tier
High
DCA to CHS Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
20.1%
Historical Cancellation
16.1%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
8/12
Operations Volume
573
Weighted Risk Score
0.705
Volatility Index
13.6%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 163 | 30 | 18.4% | n/a | 2 |
| February | 130 | 29 | 22.3% | n/a | 2 |
| March | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | n/a | 1 |
| June | 70 | 7 | 10.0% | n/a | 2 |
| July | 83 | 12 | 14.5% | n/a | 3 |
| August | 53 | 5 | 9.4% | n/a | 1 |
| November | 28 | 3 | 10.7% | n/a | 1 |
| December | 44 | 5 | 11.4% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 8 distinct months, with 573 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 16.1%. The volatility profile (13.6%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 20.1%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- DCA to EWR (15.1% cancel)
- DCA to CLE (16.2% cancel)
- DCA to CAE (16.6% cancel)
- DCA to BNA (15.6% cancel)