Risk Tier
High
SYR to DCA Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
20.9%
Historical Cancellation
16.9%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
9/12
Operations Volume
349
Weighted Risk Score
0.730
Volatility Index
15.3%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 82 | 10 | 12.2% | n/a | 1 |
| February | 101 | 19 | 18.8% | n/a | 1 |
| March | 33 | 4 | 12.1% | n/a | 1 |
| April | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 27 | 4 | 14.8% | n/a | 1 |
| June | 27 | 11 | 40.7% | n/a | 2 |
| July | 26 | 5 | 19.2% | n/a | 1 |
| August | 20 | 1 | 5.0% | n/a | 1 |
| November | 27 | 2 | 7.4% | n/a | 2 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 9 distinct months, with 349 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 16.9%. The volatility profile (15.3%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 20.9%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- EWR to DCA (15.1% cancel)
- CHS to DCA (16.4% cancel)
- CLE to DCA (16.7% cancel)
- PVD to DCA (15.8% cancel)