Risk Tier
High
CLE to DCA Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
20.5%
Historical Cancellation
16.7%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
10/12
Operations Volume
641
Weighted Risk Score
0.798
Volatility Index
5.1%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 101 | 13 | 12.9% | n/a | 2 |
| February | 113 | 19 | 16.8% | n/a | 1 |
| March | 57 | 6 | 10.5% | n/a | 1 |
| April | 29 | 3 | 10.3% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 23 | 4 | 17.4% | n/a | 1 |
| June | 91 | 23 | 25.3% | n/a | 1 |
| July | 134 | 28 | 20.9% | n/a | 1 |
| August | 25 | 4 | 16.0% | n/a | 1 |
| November | 50 | 5 | 10.0% | n/a | 1 |
| December | 18 | 2 | 11.1% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 10 distinct months, with 641 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 16.7%. The volatility profile (5.1%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 20.5%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- EWR to DCA (15.1% cancel)
- CHS to DCA (16.4% cancel)
- PVD to DCA (15.8% cancel)
- BUF to DCA (16.8% cancel)