Risk Tier
High
BUF to JFK Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
18.0%
Historical Cancellation
14.0%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
10/12
Operations Volume
592
Weighted Risk Score
0.666
Volatility Index
7.6%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 27 | 2 | 7.4% | n/a | 1 |
| February | 120 | 11 | 9.2% | n/a | 2 |
| March | 28 | 3 | 10.7% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 62 | 7 | 11.3% | n/a | 1 |
| June | 67 | 12 | 17.9% | n/a | 1 |
| July | 121 | 37 | 30.6% | n/a | 2 |
| August | 30 | 2 | 6.7% | n/a | 1 |
| September | 30 | 2 | 6.7% | n/a | 1 |
| October | 49 | 3 | 6.1% | n/a | 2 |
| November | 58 | 4 | 6.9% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 10 distinct months, with 592 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 14.0%. The volatility profile (7.6%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 18.0%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- BUF to DCA (16.8% cancel)
- DCA to JFK (13.7% cancel)
- EWR to STL (18.8% cancel)
- DCA to EWR (15.1% cancel)