Risk Tier
High
BNA to DCA Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
19.7%
Historical Cancellation
15.7%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
9/12
Operations Volume
964
Weighted Risk Score
0.748
Volatility Index
6.5%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 301 | 37 | 12.3% | n/a | 3 |
| February | 147 | 30 | 20.4% | n/a | 2 |
| March | 55 | 5 | 9.1% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 88 | 8 | 9.1% | n/a | 2 |
| June | 80 | 21 | 26.2% | n/a | 4 |
| July | 199 | 41 | 20.6% | n/a | 5 |
| August | 25 | 3 | 12.0% | n/a | 3 |
| September | 17 | 2 | 11.8% | n/a | 2 |
| November | 52 | 4 | 7.7% | n/a | 2 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 9 distinct months, with 964 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 15.7%. The volatility profile (6.5%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 19.7%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- EWR to DCA (15.1% cancel)
- CHS to DCA (16.4% cancel)
- CLE to DCA (16.7% cancel)
- PVD to DCA (15.8% cancel)