Risk Tier
High
BDL to DCA Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
19.9%
Historical Cancellation
15.9%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
9/12
Operations Volume
592
Weighted Risk Score
0.726
Volatility Index
18.1%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 140 | 19 | 13.6% | n/a | 3 |
| February | 130 | 19 | 14.6% | n/a | 3 |
| March | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | n/a | 1 |
| June | 71 | 16 | 22.5% | n/a | 4 |
| July | 142 | 28 | 19.7% | n/a | 4 |
| August | 30 | 3 | 10.0% | n/a | 2 |
| September | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | n/a | 1 |
| November | 28 | 3 | 10.7% | n/a | 1 |
| December | 42 | 3 | 7.1% | n/a | 2 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 9 distinct months, with 592 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 15.9%. The volatility profile (18.1%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 19.9%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- EWR to DCA (15.1% cancel)
- CHS to DCA (16.4% cancel)
- CLE to DCA (16.7% cancel)
- PVD to DCA (15.8% cancel)